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Hello, housing professionals and enthusiasts! Welcome back to Housing Market Daily.
As we kick off the first full week of November, the theme is "The Great Stabilization." We're tracking the aftermath of the Fed's latest rate cut and watching how mortgage rates are reacting (spoiler: it's not a free fall). Meanwhile, builders are feeling cautiously optimistic about 2026, while a massive regional divide continues to define affordability.
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Ready to tackle the week? Let's dive into the top 25 headlines driving the conversation.
💸 Finance
Mortgage Rates See Volatile Response Post-Fed Cut: After the Fed's latest cut, mortgage rates initially jumped before recovering, highlighting continued market sensitivity to Fed forward guidance, not just the cut itself. Mortgage News Daily
Fannie Mae Predicts Sub-6% Rates by End of 2026: Fannie Mae revised its forecast, projecting the 30-year fixed rate will ease to 5.9% by the end of 2026, fueling optimism for future transaction volume. TheStreet
Loan Limits Coming Into Focus as Home Prices Cool: As home price appreciation slows nationally, industry analysts are beginning to factor in new conforming loan limits for 2026 based on recent market cooling trends. Mortgage News Daily
Delinquency Rates Rise for Fannie/Freddie Single-Family Loans: Fannie and Freddie Mac reported an increase in the single-family delinquency rate in September, signaling financial stress in some parts of the market. Calculated Risk Blog
Rising Home Equity Fuels Hope for Down Payments: The wealth effect from increased homeowner equity may provide resources for existing owners to trade up or help family members with down payments. J.P. Morgan
🏗️ Construction
Builder Sentiment Jumps to Highest Since April on Rate Cut Hopes: The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI rose significantly in October to 37, primarily due to rising sales expectations for the next six months. Morningstar
Sales Expectations Surpass Negative Territory: The HMI sub-index for sales expectations in the next six months jumped nine points to 54, crossing the critical threshold of 50 for the first time since January. NAHB
Price Cuts Deepen as Competition Heats Up: The average price reduction offered by builders reached 6% in October, the highest level since October 2024, as 38% of builders cut prices. NAHB
Multifamily Starts Put on the Brakes: High interest rates and a softening rental market outlook have caused builders to pull back sharply on new multifamily unit starts, despite recent high completion rates. J.P. Morgan
New Home Sales Soar to 3-Year High: August new home sales hit an annual rate of 800,000 units, a 20.5% jump from July, driven by builder incentives and easing mortgage rates. FinancialContent
🏛️ Government
Fed Confirms End to Balance Sheet Run-Off in December: The Federal Reserve cemented its pivot by announcing it will cease its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program by the end of the year, a move aimed at easing long-term borrowing costs. CNBC
Shutdown Causes Data Blackout: The ongoing government shutdown continues to delay key Census Bureau releases, leaving the market blind to crucial September housing starts and employment data. CNBC
Government Shutdown's Broader Impact Feared: Analysts warn the protracted shutdown could have a larger-than-expected economic impact, especially after a temporary halt to certain federal assistance programs. RBC/CNBC
Texas Voters Face 17 Propositions with Major Property Tax Impact: Ahead of the November ballot, Texas voters are deciding on 17 constitutional amendments, several of which relate directly to property tax exemptions for veterans, the elderly, and those affected by disaster. The Texas Tribune
New Loan Limits for FHA and VA Programs Expected: Government-backed loan limits are coming under review, influenced by the slowdown in national home price appreciation, potentially offering modest changes for borrowers. Mortgage News Daily
🏘️ Local
Northeast and Midwest Price Momentum Stays Strong: More affordable markets like Grand Island, NE (+6.3%) and Glens Falls, NY (+5.9%) are leading the nation in year-over-year price growth. HouseCanary
Sun Belt Correction Continues in Coastal Florida: Markets like Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, are seeing high listing activity but weaker price appreciation as the market corrects from its pandemic-era boom. HouseCanary
Bay Area Housing Rides AI Boom: Strong job market performance linked to the artificial intelligence boom continues to fuel robust housing demand and price resilience in the San Francisco Bay Area. National Mortgage Professional
Houston Forecasted for Modest, Sustainable Growth in 2026: Local experts predict the Houston market will achieve better balance next year with modest, single-digit price appreciation and stabilization of inventory. HAR.com
New York City's Ongoing Policy Conflict: Ongoing struggles over housing policy in NYC, driven by rising costs and rent regulation reforms, are interrupting speculative business models in the market. Phenomenal World
🏢 Industry
Sellers 'Slam the Brakes' on New Listings: The number of new listings fell to a record low for August, with existing homeowners remaining locked into their low mortgage rates, perpetuating the supply crunch. Zillow Research
Rents Expected to Cool Further in 2026: Due to a massive influx of new multifamily supply, single-family rent growth is expected to slow to 2.8% and multifamily rent growth to just 1.1% in 2025. Zillow Research
Home Price Appreciation Keeps Cooling Nationally: The annual rate of national home price growth continues to decelerate, with some forecasts calling for home values to end 2025 essentially unchanged from where they started. Mortgage News Daily
Pending Home Sales Plateau in September: Despite lower rates, contract signings remained unchanged month-over-month, suggesting buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and broader economic uncertainty. NAR/Calculated Risk Blog
Focus Shifts to Long-Term Investment in Smaller Metros: Amid volatility, investor interest is strong in smaller, affordable metros like Hot Springs, AR, and St. George, UT, seeking stable rental returns. HouseCanary
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November Housing Outlook: Inventory Crisis Overrides Lower Rates
Here's the essential takeaway as we enter November: The market's biggest roadblock is no longer high mortgage rates, but a crippling inventory crisis. The Fed has delivered relief, but the "Golden Handcuffs" effect has sellers locking down supply at a record low. Your winning buyer strategy must leverage new construction incentives and laser-focus on high-growth regional markets. Regional performance is the single most important metric right now—don't trust the national average!
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