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Welcome back to HousingMarket Daily!

As we step into a new week, the housing market continues to present a complex picture, with pockets of opportunity emerging amidst persistent affordability challenges. The biggest news is the potential end to the longest government shutdown, which could finally bring stability and release delayed economic data. On the ground, we're seeing more metros shift into buyer's market territory, a clear sign that inventory is increasing and sellers are becoming more willing to negotiate. Mortgage rates are holding steady near recent highs, influenced by bond market moves and continued uncertainty from the Federal Reserve, making housing affordability the central theme in nearly every conversation, from Capitol Hill to the local closing table.

Let's dive into the top 25 headlines shaping your business today.

🏛️ Government Policy & Regulation

  1. Senate Moves Toward Ending Longest-Ever Government Shutdown—Here's What It Could Mean for Housing

  • The Senate has reached a bipartisan deal to fund the federal government, which, if passed by the House and signed, would end the longest-ever government shutdown. A resolution is expected to bring stability back to federal housing agencies and resume the release of crucial economic reports, which have been delayed. Realtor.com®

  1. U.S. Federal Housing Requests Input on New Strategic Plan

  • The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is seeking public feedback on its proposed Strategic Plan for FY 2026–2030, which outlines the agency's goals for responsibly overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA News Releases

  1. FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.4 Percent in August; Up 2.3 Percent

  • According to the FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®), U.S. house prices rose 0.4% in August and 2.3% year-over-year from August 2024 to August 2025, indicating continued, albeit slower, national price appreciation. FHFA News Releases

  1. Home Buyer Data Shows Urgency in Fight for Affordability

  • The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) highlights the urgency of the affordability crisis, pressing policymakers to advance bipartisan solutions that encourage more sales, streamline local zoning, and modernize construction methods to increase housing supply. National Association of REALTORS®

  1. Wisconsin Tribal Leaders Warn Housing Models Unsustainable, Call for New Approaches

  • Tribal leaders in Wisconsin are raising concerns that current housing models are structurally unmanageable for Native lands, urging a shift to new approaches to address the significant housing gap affecting Native veterans and communities. Tribal Business News

💰 Finance & Lending News

  1. Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range

  • Mortgage rates saw a small increase going into the weekend but are holding steady within the range established for November. This stability is largely attributed to movements in the bond market. Mortgage News Daily

  1. Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Recent Highs

  • Despite the Fed's recent interest rate cuts, mortgage rates have remained firm, hovering near their highest levels in over a month, suggesting that economic factors like bond yields are keeping rates elevated. Mortgage News Daily

  1. Today's Mortgage Rates: Conventional 30-year Fixed at 6.263%

  • Current mortgage rates show the average 30-year fixed conventional rate slightly increased to 6.263%, suggesting that expanding Treasury yields and stock market gains are putting upward pressure on rates. The Mortgage Reports

  1. Home Price Appreciation Cooling; New Loan Limits Coming Into Focus

  • Home price appreciation continues to moderate, which is expected to influence upcoming decisions on new conforming loan limits for government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mortgage News Daily (archived Friday headline)

  1. The K-Shaped Economy and the Housing Recession

  • An analysis of the current economic climate suggests the housing market is experiencing a "recession," characterized by a significant slowdown, particularly compared to the broader economy, driven by the lingering effects of high interest rates and tight monetary policy. Inman

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🏗️ Construction & Supply 

  1. New Home Sales Stabilized in September Amid Increased Supply

  • New home sales have remained steady over the last year, with September seeing a modest 2.6% increase month-over-month. This is occurring as builders increase community counts and provide incentives to offset affordability issues. Zonda

  1. Denver, Los Angeles/OC, and Orlando See Biggest Growth in New Home Community Counts

  • Data shows that Denver, Los Angeles/Orange County, and Orlando are leading the nation in year-over-year growth of new home community counts, signifying a significant push by builders to increase supply in those regions. Zonda

  1. Entry-Level New Home Prices Down 1.5% to $324,026, High-End Rise

  • The new home market is bifurcating: prices for entry-level homes fell $1.5\%$ to $324,026, while high-end home prices saw a 2.4\% increase, reflecting builders' strategies to capture different segments of the demand pool. Zonda (archived monthly data)

  1. 30% Builders Lowered Prices in September, Signal Shift in Pricing Power

  • A monthly survey of builders found that 30% lowered prices in September (down from 42% in August), 65% held prices flat, and 5% raised them, suggesting a stabilization in builder incentives but continued pressure to entice buyers. Zonda (archived monthly data)

  1. Total Quick Move-Ins (QMIs) Up 13.1% Compared to Last Year

  • The national total of Quick Move-Ins (homes ready for occupancy within 90 days) has grown by over 13% year-over-year, providing buyers with more immediate options and contributing to the overall increase in housing inventory. Zonda (archived monthly data)

  1. More Cities Turning Into Buyer's Markets—Where Homebuyers Now Have the Upper Hand

  • An increasing number of top U.S. metros are crossing the six-month supply threshold, officially shifting power from sellers to buyers, who now have more selection and better bargaining leverage. Realtor.com®

  1. Miami Leads as Nation's Top Buyer's Market with 10 Months of Supply YoY

  • Miami remains the strongest buyer's market in the country, with its months of supply rising to 10. Inventory has increased more than 24% compared to the same period last year, giving buyers significant negotiating power. Realtor.com®

  1. Austin, TX, Shifts into a Buyer's Market as New Builds Account for 24% of Inventory

  • Austin, once a poster child for the pandemic housing boom, has seen its median home price decline by 15% since August 2022. Excess supply, with new builds making up 24% of the market, has shifted it firmly into buyer territory. TheStreet

  1. Denver, Nashville, and Houston Join Buyer's Market Territory

  • Denver, Nashville, and Houston have recently crossed the six-month supply mark, transitioning from balanced or seller's markets into buyer's markets as new listings surge and buyer demand eases. Realtor.com®

  1. 7 of the 10 Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Price Drops Are in Florida

  • The cooling trend is most pronounced in Florida, which accounts for seven of the top ten metros with the steepest year-over-year home price drops, including Punta Gorda (2%) and Cape Coral (10%). TheStreet

🏢 Industry Analysis & Predictions 

  1. Berkshire Hathaway Predicts Fall 2025 May Be Buyer's Turning Point

  • Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices suggests that after the slowest spring-summer market in decades, fall 2025 conditions—higher supply, stagnant prices, accelerating price cuts, and contracting mortgage rates—may represent a major turning point for buyers. TheStreet

  1. Housing Market Predictions for 2025-2029 Show Modest Annual Price Appreciation

  • Experts from Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey predict a return to a more sustainable, modest growth pattern, with average annual home price appreciation forecast at 2.4% for 2025, 2.1% for 2026, and 2.9% for 2027. Norada Real Estate Investments

  1. Home Buyers Finding Ways to Negotiate Beyond Just List Price

  • Buyers are becoming more sophisticated in negotiations, moving beyond simple price reductions to secure seller concessions for temporary or permanent rate buydowns, which can lead to significant savings on monthly payments. Realtor.com®

  1. For a Housing Recovery, Inventory Needs to Increase and Mortgage Rates Need to Fall

  • Industry experts agree that a full housing market recovery requires two primary conditions: a substantial increase in housing inventory to ease price pressure and a further decline in mortgage rates to boost affordability and buyer demand. Forbes

  1. The Long-Term "Locked-In" Effect on Existing Homeowners May Lessen Over Time

  • While many existing homeowners remain "locked-in" by their low 2% or 3% mortgage rates, factors like life changes (marriages, divorces, new jobs) will eventually necessitate a move, slowly releasing more inventory into the market over the next few years. National Association of REALTORS® (archived forecast data)

💡Conclusion

The biggest story heading into today is the Great Housing Power Shift. Government action to end the shutdown is poised to restore stability, but the most palpable change is the growing number of local markets where the buyer now holds the advantage. With new construction increasing and sellers utilizing concessions like rate buydowns, the market is slowly rebalancing. The next phase will be characterized by modest, sustainable price growth rather than the frenetic spikes of the recent past.

The focus for all stakeholders must remain on creative solutions to tackle the affordability crisis as a whole.

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