Hello, housing professionals and enthusiasts! Welcome to Housing Market Daily.
This week? Totally divergent. The Fed's done tightening, giving rates a little push down, but the inventory crisis is at an all-time low. Builders are feeling good about 2026, while existing homeowners are just not selling. To succeed, you'll need to navigate the wild differences between the strong Northeast and the correcting Sun Belt.
Ready to crush this week? Let's check out the top 25 headlines everyone's talking about.
💸 Finance
Fannie Mae Predicts Sub-6% Rates by End of 2026: Fannie Mae revised its long-term forecast, projecting the 30-year fixed rate will ease to 5.9% by the end of 2026, fueling optimism for future transaction volume. TheStreet
Refinance Application Volume Surges 7.1%: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data shows refinance applications jumped, indicating homeowners with rates above 6.5% are capitalizing on the recent rate dip. National Mortgage Professional
HELOC Volume Up as Owners Tap Equity Wealth: Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) application volume increased in Q4, signaling existing owners are leveraging high home equity instead of moving. Experian
Housing Affordability Index Hits New Low: The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Housing Affordability Index dropped to a new multi-decade low, confirming that for the average earner, housing remains the most unaffordable it has been since the 1980s. NAR Research
Investor Share of Home Purchases Stabilizes Near 30%: CoreLogic reported that the investor share of home sales is holding steady at its elevated peak, indicating continued institutional and small-time investor dominance. CoreLogic
🏗️ Construction
Builder Sentiment Jumps to Highest Since April: The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI rose significantly to 37 in October, primarily due to rising sales expectations for the next six months driven by easing rates. Morningstar
Multifamily Starts Put on the Brakes: High interest rates and a softening rental market outlook have caused builders to pull back sharply on new multifamily unit starts, despite recent high completion rates. Marcus & Millichap
New Home Sales Driven by Incentives: Analysis shows recent new home sales success is less about organic demand and more about aggressive builder incentives like rate buydowns and closing cost assistance. Builder Magazine
Supply Chain Woes Return: Concrete Costs Spike: Industry reports indicate that costs for specific materials, particularly concrete and specialized lumber, have spiked again, threatening construction budgets for 2026. Pro Builder
Completed Inventory Spikes in South: Inventory of completed new single-family homes reached its highest level since 2009, with a massive, volatile spike in sales and supply concentrated in the South. Zillow
🏛️ Government
FHA/VA Loan Limits to See Modest Adjustments: Government-backed loan limits are under review and are expected to reflect a slight national slowdown in home price appreciation, potentially offering minor relief for first-time borrowers. HousingWire
GSE Privatization Debate Intensifies in Congress: Calls for the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSEs) are intensifying, suggesting potential large-scale changes to the secondary mortgage market structure. Wall Street Journal
YIMBY vs. NIMBY Conflict Heats Up in Local Government Meetings: Local housing density proposals are dominating local government agendas, with "Yes In My Backyard" (YIMBY) movements clashing with established resident opposition. Sightline Institute
Infrastructure Bill Funds Earmarked for Transit Housing Start Flowing: Federal funds explicitly reserved for affordable housing projects near transit centers are beginning to be allocated, targeting supply constraints in major metros. DOT News
Property Tax Cap Measures Introduced Across States: Multiple state legislatures are introducing or voting on measures designed to limit soaring local property taxes, responding to homeowners facing massive escrow cost increases. State Policy Reports
🏘️ Local
Northeast Resiliency Confirmed by Low Inventory: Price growth remains stubborn in the Northeast due to the most severe low inventory levels in the nation, making bidding wars common, even in late fall. Redfin
Sun Belt Correction Deepens: High Price Cuts in Former Boomtowns: Inventory surge continues to lead to the highest rates of price cuts in former Sun Belt boomtowns like Boise and Phoenix, signaling a buyer's market shift. Realtor.com
Midwest Momentum: Affordability Leads Appreciation: Affordable Midwestern metros continue to lead national appreciation rankings, driven by remote workers seeking lower housing costs without compromising job access. Zillow
Coastal Insurance Crisis Delays Closings: Rising climate risk insurance costs and dwindling availability are now actively delaying closings and increasing escrow costs in Florida and California coastal markets. The Real Deal
Tech Hub Layoffs Shift Rental Demand: Recent large-scale tech layoffs are beginning to shift rental demand away from core San Francisco and Seattle neighborhoods toward surrounding, more affordable cities. Apartment List
🏢 Industry
Existing Home Sales Hit New Multi-Decade Low: NAR reported that the total volume of existing home sales has fallen to a new low not seen since the late 1990s, showcasing the complete stagnation of the resale market. NAR News
Sellers Delist Rather than Drop Prices: A rising trend shows existing homeowners are increasingly pulling their properties off the market (delisting) rather than reducing prices to match buyer expectations. Inman News
PropTech Focus Shifts to AI and Automation: The industry is accelerating tech adoption, with a major focus on leveraging AI-powered analytics and automation for leasing, underwriting, and property management in 2026. RISMedia
Cash Buyers Continue to Dominate Negotiations: All-cash sales remain elevated, confirming that non-contingent cash offers are still dominating negotiations and skewing the average price point in key markets. ATTOM Data
ESG Gains Momentum in CRE: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are no longer optional, becoming central to competitive positioning for commercial real estate properties and attracting investor capital. Brady Martz
Lower Rates Eclipsed by Inventory Crisis
So, here's the deal as we roll into November: The market's officially hit its "Acceptance Phase." The Fed's hinting at rate cuts, which sounds nice, but the "Golden Handcuffs" inventory crunch is the real showstopper. Sellers are holding onto their homes like they're solid gold, pushing buyers straight into a super competitive new construction market.
Understanding local market dynamics is crucial right now; national averages can be misleading. This market is exceptionally intricate, arguably the most complex in a decade.
Therefore, it's vital to be informed, focus on local trends, and secure a skilled negotiator.
Don't let your network miss this crucial market pivot. Share Housing Market Daily and empower your colleagues with the details needed to navigate the 2026 housing market.