Hello, housing professionals and enthusiasts! Welcome back to Housing Market Daily.
If there's one word defining this week, it's "Divergence." The Fed has confirmed it's done tightening, giving rates a gentle nudge downward, yet the inventory crisis is hitting a new record low. We’re seeing builders feel optimistic about 2026, while existing homeowners are simply refusing to sell. Your success depends entirely on navigating the extreme differences between the resilient Northeast and the correcting Sun Belt.
Ready to tackle the week ahead? Let's dive into the top 25 headlines driving the conversation.
💸 Finance
Mortgage Rates See Volatile Response Post-Fed Cut: Despite the rate cut, 30-year fixed mortgage rates initially jumped before recovering, highlighting continued market sensitivity to Fed forward guidance, not just the cut itself. Mortgage News Daily
Fannie Mae Predicts Sub-6% Rates by End of 2026: Fannie Mae revised its long-term forecast, projecting the 30-year fixed rate will ease to 5.9% by the end of 2026, fueling optimism for future transaction volume. TheStreet
Inflation Shelter Costs Remain Elevated: Despite easing headline CPI, shelter costs (rent and ownership) are proving stubborn, keeping core inflation high and potentially limiting the Fed's ability to cut further. Veros Real Estate Solutions
Delinquency Rates Rise for GSE Single-Family Loans: Fannie and Freddie Mac reported an increase in the single-family delinquency rate in September, signaling financial stress in some vulnerable market segments. Calculated Risk Blog
Home Equity Fuels Down Payment Hope: The significant wealth effect from massive homeowner equity gains may provide resources for existing owners to trade up or help family members with down payments. Bankrate
🏗️ Construction
Builder Sentiment Jumps to Highest Since April: The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI rose significantly to 37 in October, primarily due to rising sales expectations for the next six months driven by easing rates. Morningstar
Multifamily Starts Put on the Brakes: High interest rates and a softening rental market outlook have caused builders to pull back sharply on new multifamily unit starts, despite recent high completion rates. Aberdeen Investments
New Home Sales Soar to 3-Year High: August new home sales hit an annual rate of 800,000 units, driven by builder incentives and easing mortgage rates, showcasing the strength of the new construction sector. FinancialContent
Completed Inventory Spikes in South: Inventory of completed new single-family homes reached its highest level since 2009, with a massive, volatile spike in sales and supply concentrated in the South. Wolf Street
Tariff Uncertainty Threatens Construction Costs: Industry leaders warn that renewed tariff uncertainty will likely lead to higher construction costs in 2026, which will constrain future supply. Invesco
📈 Stock Watch: Key Housing Leaders
A brief look at how sentiment is translating into stock performance for sector leaders:
Lennar Corp. $LEN ( ▲ 0.88% ) : As existing home sales struggle, major homebuilders like Lennar are seeing robust new order growth. Stock performance reflects optimism that builders will dominate the market through 2026, utilizing incentives to capture demand. Morningstar
Zillow Group $Z ( ▼ 2.2% ) : The lack of "new listings" (Industry #1) directly impacts portal revenue. Zillow's stock movement is often a barometer for transaction volume in the existing home market, highlighting the reliance of PropTech on market activity. TheStreet
🏛️ Government
Fed Confirms End to Balance Sheet Run-Off in December: The Federal Reserve announced it will cease its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program by the end of the year, aiming to ease long-term borrowing costs and stabilize debt markets. CNBC
Protracted Shutdown Feared to Impact Q4 GDP: Analysts warn the ongoing, protracted government shutdown could have a larger-than-expected economic impact on Q4 GDP, introducing new systemic risks. RBC/CNBC
Loan Limits for FHA and VA Programs Expected to See Modest Adjustments: Government-backed loan limits are under review, influenced by the national slowdown in home price appreciation, potentially offering minor relief for first-time borrowers. Mortgage News Daily
Texas Voters Face 17 Propositions with Major Property Tax Impact: Ahead of the election, Texas voters are deciding on 17 constitutional amendments, several of which relate directly to property tax exemptions and local housing policy. The Texas Tribune
CRE Executives Urge Policy Clarity: Industry leaders cite political and policy uncertainty, particularly regarding interest rates and tax laws, as a major factor holding back investment and deal flow. Seyfarth Shaw LLP
🏘️ Local
Northeast and Midwest Price Momentum Stays Strong: More affordable markets like Grand Island, NE (+6.3%) and Glens Falls, NY (+5.9%) are leading the nation in year-over-year price growth due to tight local supply. HouseCanary
Sun Belt Correction Continues in Coastal Florida: Markets like Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, are seeing higher listing activity but weaker price appreciation as the market corrects from its pandemic peak. HouseCanary
Bay Area Housing Rides AI Boom: Strong job market performance linked to the artificial intelligence boom continues to fuel robust housing demand and price resilience in the San Francisco Bay Area. National Mortgage Professional
Houston Forecasted for Modest, Sustainable Growth in 2026: Local experts predict the Houston market will achieve better balance next year with modest, single-digit price appreciation and stabilization of inventory. HAR.com
New York City's Ongoing Policy Conflict: Ongoing struggles over housing policy in NYC, driven by rising costs and rent regulation reforms, are interrupting speculative business models in the market. Phenomenal World
🏢 Industry
Sellers 'Slam the Brakes' on New Listings: The number of new listings fell to a record low for August, with existing homeowners remaining locked into their low mortgage rates, perpetuating the supply crunch. Zillow Research
Pending Home Sales Plateau in September: Despite lower rates, contract signings remained unchanged month-over-month, suggesting buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and broader economic uncertainty. NAR/Calculated Risk Blog
Price Cooling Expected Through 2026: The annual rate of national home price growth continues to decelerate, with some forecasts calling for home values to end 2025 essentially unchanged as the recovery takes hold slowly. TD Economics
PropTech Focus Shifts to AI and Automation: The industry is accelerating tech adoption, with a major focus on leveraging AI-powered analytics and automation for leasing, underwriting, and property management in 2026. AvidXchange
ESG Gains Momentum in CRE: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are no longer optional, becoming central to competitive positioning for commercial real estate properties and attracting investor capital. Brady Martz
Your November Housing Outlook: Inventory Crisis Overrides Lower Rates
Here's the essential takeaway as we navigate November: The market has officially entered its "Acceptance Phase." The Fed is whispering sweet nothings about rate cuts, but the "Golden Handcuffs" inventory crisis is screaming louder. Sellers are hoarding keys like dragons guarding treasure, forcing buyers into a highly competitive new construction market.
Regional performance is the single most important metric right now—don't get fooled by the national average! This is the most complex market in a decade—be smart, be local, and bring a great negotiator.
Don't let your network miss this crucial market pivot. Share Housing Market Daily and empower your colleagues to navigate the 2026 housing market.