Hello, housing professionals and enthusiasts! 👋
This week concluded with the Fed delivering its second rate cut, easing finance costs. However, a new trend of sellers pulling listings rather than accepting lower prices is keeping inventory tight. This market is a tactical battleground defined by easing rates and stubborn supply constraints.
Here are the top 25 headlines across five key categories to keep you informed:
💸 Finance News
Fed Cuts Key Rate for Second Time This Year (25bps): The FOMC officially moved the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, prioritizing stabilization of the labor market. The Mortgage Reports
Mortgage Rates Predicted to Settle at 6.0%-6.2% in November: Experts forecast a modest, stable environment for 30-year fixed rates following the Fed’s continued easing. Norada Real Estate
Refinance Activity Surges: Consistent rate easing has sent refinance application volumes soaring by over 7% week-over-week as homeowners with high current rates seek savings. National Mortgage Professional
Home Equity Stays Strong: Homeowners collectively hold $34.5 trillion in equity, with HELOC rates at a two-year low providing options for high-interest debt consolidation. Churchill Mortgage
Renting Remains Cheaper Than Buying: High borrowing costs and elevated prices mean renting is the more affordable option in most major US markets, potentially saving households hundreds per month. Wolfnest
🏗️ Construction Update
Builder Confidence Jumps Ahead of 2026: The NAHB's future sales index crosses the 50-point optimism mark in October, signaling rising confidence for single-family starts next year. NAHB
Builder Incentives Peak: The share of builders cutting prices (38%) and the average price reduction (6%) remain high, offering peak incentives to new home buyers. NAHB
Future Supply Under Pressure: Supply shortages are expected to worsen for many sectors in 2025, driven by high construction and debt costs that challenge development viability. JLL
President Urges More Building: The administration publicly called on major homebuilders to increase the pace of construction to alleviate the national housing shortage. Churchill Mortgage
Barndominiums Trend Grows: Non-traditional housing like barndominiums is gaining popularity as a faster, more affordable alternative to traditional stick-built homes. Churchill Mortgage
🏛️ Government News
Fed Cites Labor Market Risk as Rationale for Cut: The FOMC's rate cut decision was driven by growing concerns that risks to employment have risen, forcing the pivot despite inflation worries. The Guardian
Bipartisan Housing Bill Passes: The ROAD to Housing Act passed the Senate, aiming to boost supply, cut red tape, and expand mortgage access to improve affordability. Churchill Mortgage
Federal Data Gap Continues: The ongoing government shutdown continues to suspend the release of critical economic data (like jobs and housing starts), forcing analysts to rely on modeling. Builder and Developer Magazine
FICO Mortgage Score Shift: A new FICO program bypassing credit bureaus to provide a direct mortgage score is poised to streamline lending qualification for some buyers. Mortgage News Daily
Multifamily Policy Focus: HUD has submitted major rule changes for approval, including revisions to the Disparate Impact Rule and eviction notice requirements. Wolfnest
🏘️ Local & Regional
Sellers 'Delisting' Homes at Rapid Pace: Sellers are pulling properties off the market (delisting up 52% YoY) rather than cutting prices, which is the primary reason inventory is tight and prices are stubbornly high. Washington Post
Regional Price Split Deepens: Northeast/Midwest prices remain resilient, while many Sun Belt markets (Tampa, Phoenix, Miami) are seeing the largest price corrections after their pandemic-era surge. Investopedia
Dallas/Fort Worth Ascends: DFW has become the new preferred market for investment and growth, overtaking previous Sun Belt leaders like Nashville and Phoenix in major real estate trend outlooks. PwC
Luxury Market Surprise: Detroit tops the Luxury Housing Market Ranking, offering one of the most accessible paths into high-end housing due to its relative affordability. Realtor.com
San Antonio/Austin Inventory Surge: Texas metros continue to see significant inventory increases (40%+ YoY), shifting them toward buyer's market conditions despite national scarcity. Churchill Mortgage
🏢 Market Trends & Industry News
Buyer Negotiation Power Peaks: Analysts estimate over 500,000 more sellers than buyers are in the market, creating a tactical advantage for motivated purchasers. Charlie Bilello's Blog
Price Cut Volume High: Nearly 20% of all listings (19.9%) saw a price cut in September, signaling seller capitulation in certain segments. Churchill Mortgage
Investor Dominance Continues: Investors are driving the market shift, accounting for the highest share (30%) of single-family home purchases on record. CRE Daily
Inventory Gains Plateau: Active listings have risen for 24 straight months, but the pace of growth has eased every month since May, signaling a plateau in inventory when the market still needs supply. Washington Post
Tenant Union Movement: The first-ever nationwide tenant union effort against a private equity landlord signals a major new dynamic in rental housing negotiations. Wolfnest
We hope this newsletter provides you with the essential intelligence needed to navigate today's complex landscape. As the market continues its tactical dance, remember that every shift presents new opportunities. And speaking of treats, with the Fed's latest rate cut, perhaps it's a "trick or treat" for homeowners and buyers alike!
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