The Black Friday Effect: $832k Loan Limit & Post-Turkey Market Pivot

Good morning and happy Friday!

I hope you enjoyed a restful Thanksgiving surrounded by family, friends, and far too much food. As we shake off the tryptophan fog and head into the final stretch of 2025, the housing market is taking its traditional brief holiday pause—but don’t let the quiet fool you.

Today is officially Black Friday. While the retail world is obsessed with doorbusters and flat-screen TVs, the housing market offers a different kind of deal. This is arguably the best day of the year to negotiate; competition is non-existent, and sellers active today are highly motivated. The "Black Friday Effect" in real estate isn't about crowds—it's about the lack of them. Data consistently shows that while volume drops today, the intent of active buyers spikes. Anyone touring a home on the day after Thanksgiving is not a tire-kicker.

This week is traditionally one of the slowest for transaction volume, yet it is often one of the most critical for policy and forward-looking data. While many were prepping turkeys, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) delivered the official numbers that will define the lending landscape for the coming year. With the new 2026 conforming loan limits officially set at $832,750, we have a fresh set of goalposts for the spring market.

Today, we unpack the numbers you might have missed while traveling, analyzing what higher loan limits, stabilizing rates, and shifting builder sentiment mean for your business as we close out the year. Let’s dive in.

Mortgage Rates, Lending Volume & Federal Policy

Freddie Mac PMMS: Rates Dip Slightly to 6.23%. In a welcome sign of stability for holiday shoppers, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.23% this week, down slightly from 6.26% the previous week. This plateau suggests that the bond market has priced in the recent economic data, offering a predictable environment for buyers looking to lock in rates before the New Year. While affordability remains a challenge, this stability is a key ingredient for consumer confidence heading into Q1 2026. View the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey data here.

MBA Applications: Purchase Index Ticks Up 0.2%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a mixed bag for the week ending November 21, 2025. The Purchase Index managed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% gain, showing surprising resilience despite the holiday distraction. However, refinance activity cooled significantly, dropping 6%, indicating that homeowners are waiting for a more substantial rate drop before pulling the trigger on restructuring their debt. Read the full MBA Weekly Applications Survey report.

Fed Minutes Reveal Cautious Optimism on Inflation. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting were released this week, indicating a consensus that while inflation is trending toward the 2% target, the "last mile" remains sticky. For housing, this implies that while rate cuts are on the table for 2026, we shouldn't expect a dramatic slashing of the federal funds rate in December. The "higher for longer" narrative is softening, but it hasn't vanished. Review the Federal Open Market Committee minutes.

Supply, Infrastructure & Builder Sentiment

October New Home Sales: A Surprising Beat. The Census Bureau and HUD released the new home sales data for October 2025 earlier this week, showing a seasonally adjusted annual rate that exceeded analyst expectations. Sales were driven largely by aggressive builder incentives and rate buydowns. This data point proves that despite broader affordability constraints, there is robust demand for turnkey inventory when the price—and the financing—is right. Analyze the Monthly New Residential Sales release.

Builder Confidence Stabilizes Ahead of 2026. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) indicates that builder sentiment held steady in November at a reading of 38. While builders remain cautious about land costs and regulatory hurdles, the traffic of prospective buyers has ticked up slightly. The report highlights a strategic shift: builders are increasingly focusing on smaller, more efficient floor plans to meet the entry-level price point in 2026. Read the official NAHB November 2025 press release.

Construction Spending Ticks Up in Single-Family Sector. Total construction spending for October showed modest gains, with the single-family residential sector leading the charge. This uptick correlates with the rise in housing starts reported last week, signaling that developers are trying to bridge the chronic inventory gap before the spring thaw. Notably, spending on multi-family projects has cooled, reflecting a market saturation in the rental sector in several major metros. Check the latest Census Bureau Construction Spending PDF.

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Policy, Regulation & Compliance

FHFA Announces 2026 Conforming Loan Limits: $832,750. In the most significant policy news of the week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced on Tuesday that the 2026 conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will increase to $832,750, up from $806,500 in 2025. This $26,250 increase reflects the 3.26% average home price appreciation over the last year. For high-cost areas, the new ceiling is set at $1,249,125. Read the official FHFA 2026 Loan Limits announcement.

FHFA Sets 2026 Multifamily Loan Caps at $176 Billion. Alongside the single-family limits, the FHFA announced that the 2026 multifamily loan purchase caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be $88 billion each, for a combined total of $176 billion. This robust cap ensures continued liquidity for the multifamily market, which is crucial for developers and investors navigating a landscape of maturing debt and fluctuating valuations. View the FHFA Multifamily Loan Caps release.

FHFA HPI: U.S. House Prices Rise 2.2% Year-Over-Year. The FHFA released its House Price Index (HPI) for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a 2.2% increase in U.S. house prices over the last year. While appreciation has slowed compared to previous years, the positive growth confirms that the market has avoided a correction despite high rates. The data supports the "soft landing" thesis for residential real estate values. Read the full FHFA House Price Index report.

General Market Movement & Inventory

Existing Home Sales Rise 1.2% in October. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing-home sales rose 1.2% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million. This marks the first gain in several months and suggests that buyers are beginning to adjust to the "new normal" of rates in the 6% range. Inventory also saw a slight uptick, providing much-needed options for active house hunters. Read the official NAR Existing Home Sales report.

Realtor.com: Active Inventory Up 15.3% Year-Over-Year. New data from Realtor.com's October 2025 Housing Market Trends Report shows a 15.3% increase in active listings compared to last year. While this inventory growth is helping to moderate price increases, the report notes that the pace of new listings is slowing, suggesting that many homeowners are still "locked in" by their low rates and reluctant to sell. Analyze the Realtor.com October 2025 Trends Report.

Case-Shiller Index: Appreciation Decelerates but Remains Positive. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for September 2025 show that while home price growth is decelerating, it remains positive in most major metros. The "cooling" is not a crash but a normalization. Markets like Miami and Dallas are seeing more modest gains compared to the double-digit spikes of previous years, signaling a healthier, more balanced negotiation environment for buyers. Explore the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Corporate, PropTech & Brokerage News

Compass & Redfin Earnings: The Focus on Efficiency. In the wake of recent Q3 earnings calls, major brokerages like Compass and Redfin are doubling down on operational efficiency and agent productivity tools for 2026. The narrative has shifted from pure agent count growth to "revenue per agent," with heavy investment in AI-driven CRM platforms designed to automate client nurturing. This tech-first approach is setting a new baseline for what agents expect from their brokerage. See the latest real estate earnings coverage.

PropTech Funding: "Rent-to-Own" Startups See Fresh Capital. Despite a generally tight venture capital environment, PropTech startups focused on alternative financing models—specifically "rent-to-own" and fractional ownership—closed significant Series B rounds this week. Investors are betting that alternative pathways to homeownership will remain essential in a high-rate environment, providing new tools for agents to help credit-challenged buyers. Follow the latest PropTech funding news.

NAR Settlement Compliance: The New Normal. Six months into the major practice changes mandated by the NAR settlement, industry analysts released a report this week assessing the impact. The data shows that buyer representation agreements are now nearly ubiquitous, and the fears of a buyer-agent exodus were largely unfounded. The industry has adapted, with commissions becoming a transparent negotiation point rather than a friction point. Read updates on NAR settlement compliance.

The post-Thanksgiving market is often dismissed as a "dead zone," but the data tells a different story.

With 2026 loan limits set at $832,750, new home sales beating expectations, and rates holding steady at 6.23%, the table is set for a robust start to the new year. The savvy agent isn't checking out until January; they are using this data to re-engage fence-sitting buyers now.

The message is clear: Real Estate's version of "Black Friday" isn't about discounted TVs; it's about the year-end builder incentives and increased loan limits that are available right now. This is the window to act before the spring competition heats up.

Enjoy your weekend leftovers, and let's finish the year strong.

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