Hello, housing professionals and enthusiasts! Welcome to Housing Market Daily.
"Stagnation" defines this week as the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle ends, causing a slight dip in interest rates. Despite this, the inventory crisis has hit a new record low. Builders are optimistic about 2026, while existing homeowners are reluctant to sell.
For now, we focus on the significant regional differences and the ongoing shift to new construction. Ready to dive in? Let's explore the top 25 headlines driving the conversation.
💸 Finance News
Mortgage Rate Forecast Stabilizes Near 6.1% for Q4: Following the Fed’s recent actions, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are projected to remain stable through year-end, avoiding drastic fluctuations. Mortgage News Daily
Fannie Mae Predicts Sub-6% Rates by End of 2026: Fannie Mae has revised its long-term forecast, anticipating that the 30-year fixed rate will ease to 5.9% by the end of 2026, fostering optimism for future transaction volumes. TheStreet
Jumbo Loan Origination Volume Hits 18-Month High: Demand for high-value loans is surging, indicating increased activity from high-net-worth buyers and investors as rates stabilize. HousingWire
Delinquency Rates Rise for GSE Single-Family Loans: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported an increase in single-family loan delinquency rates in September, signaling financial stress in certain vulnerable market segments. Calculated Risk Blog
All-Cash Sales Dip Slightly, Signaling Return of Financed Buyers: The market share of all-cash purchases saw a modest decline in Q4, a hopeful sign that slightly lower rates are reintroducing traditional, financed buyers into the competitive landscape. Redfin
🏗️ Construction News
Builder Confidence Jumps: Future Sales Expectations Highest Since April: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) significantly rose in October, primarily driven by strong expectations for future sales as rates ease. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
Builders Embrace 2/1 Rate Buydowns to Drive Sales: New construction sales success is largely attributed to developers offering temporary rate buydowns to maintain attractive monthly payments for new buyers. HousingWire
Multifamily Permits Fall as Rental Market Softens: High interest rates and a substantial pipeline of existing projects have led developers to sharply reduce new multifamily permits. CRE Daily
Single-Family Starts Show Volatility Despite Strong HMI: Despite builder optimism, actual single-family housing starts remain volatile month-to-month, reflecting persistent challenges in securing land and labor. Calculated Risk Blog
Cost of Construction Labor Jumps 8% YoY: Wage inflation for skilled construction labor continues to outpace general inflation, exerting upward pressure on the final cost of newly built homes. Moody's Analytics
🏛️ Government News
Government Shutdown Impact: Data Blackout Continues: The ongoing, prolonged government shutdown has suspended the release of crucial Census Bureau data, leaving the market blind to vital September housing starts and employment figures. CNBC
FHFA Announces Minor Changes to Conforming Loan Limits: The Federal Housing Finance Agency made only minor, technical adjustments to the 2026 conforming loan limits, reflecting flat national median home price growth. FHFA
Senate Bill Targets Zoning Reform in Major Cities: A new bipartisan Senate bill proposes linking federal transportation and infrastructure funds to local zoning reforms, incentivizing cities to allow higher density. Wall Street Journal
VA Loans Remain Crucial for Military Buyers Amid Affordability Crisis: Amid high rates, the zero-down, no-PMI benefits of VA loans provide an essential lifeline for military families seeking homeownership. Mortgage News Daily
HUD Proposes New Rules on Eviction Process: The Department of Housing and Urban Development has introduced new draft rules aimed at standardizing eviction processes in assisted housing to offer greater tenant protection. CRE Daily
🏘️ Local News
Midwest Leads Appreciation: Cincinnati, OH, Tops Growth Rankings: The affordability narrative continues to drive price appreciation, with secondary Midwestern metros leading national rankings due to migration. Zillow Research
Sun Belt Inventory Correction Hits Peak: 25% Price Cuts in Austin: Inventory correction persists in former boomtowns, with Austin reporting that one in four active listings has seen a price cut, signaling a strong shift towards a buyer's market. Redfin
Northeast Stays Locked: New Listings Volume Down 15% YoY in Boston: Despite improving national trends, the Northeast continues to be characterized by a severe supply drought, artificially inflating prices and stagnating transaction volumes. NAR News
Coastal Insurance Costs Force Market Retreat in Miami: Escalating climate risk and dwindling insurance availability are actively delaying closings and increasing escrow costs, slowing high-end transactions in coastal Florida. CNBC
Tech Layoffs Shift Rental Demand from Seattle Core to Suburbs: Recent large-scale tech layoffs are beginning to redirect rental demand away from core city neighborhoods towards surrounding, more affordable areas. Moody's Analytics
🏢 Industry News
New Listings Hit Record Low for October: The number of new properties listed for sale reached a record low for the month of October, confirming that existing homeowners are keeping supply constrained due to high replacement rates. Zillow Research
Sellers Delisting Properties at Highest Rate in 18 Months: New data confirms that sellers are increasingly pulling their properties off the market (delisting) rather than accepting lower offers, exacerbating the inventory crisis. FHFA
Existing Home Sales Volume Continues Multi-Decade Slump: NAR reported that the total volume of existing home sales remains at a low not seen since the late 1990s, highlighting the complete stagnation of the resale market. NAR News
PropTech VCs Invest Heavily in AI Valuation Tools for Volatile Markets: Venture capital is flowing into technology firms specializing in using AI to provide real-time valuation adjustments, reflecting the need for better pricing in divergent markets. HouseCanary
Home Inspection Contingencies Make a Dramatic Comeback: With easing competition, buyers are successfully reintroducing and enforcing home inspection contingencies, marking the end of the era of waived due diligence. HouseCanary
Inventory Crisis Overrides Lower Rates
Here's the essential takeaway as we navigate November: The market has officially entered its "Acceptance Phase."
While the Fed offers hopeful signs of rate cuts, the "Golden Handcuffs" inventory crisis resonates more profoundly. Sellers are holding onto their properties like dragons guarding treasure, compelling buyers into a competitive new construction market.
This is the most complex market in a decade—be astute, focus locally, and engage a skilled negotiator.
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